The first mistake is conceptual. Inflation is a sustained rise in prices across the economy. It’s not enough for prices to go up, then stop. They need to keep going up. If tariffs are making goods and services more expensive—and I’m confident they are, at the margin—the resulting price increases should be a one-time occurrence. Unless tariff rates are continually going up, they won’t persistently drive inflation. In economics jargon, we’d say this kind of supply-side issue has a level effect on prices, not a growth effect. And inflation is all about growth!