The phrase "black swan" was a common expression in 16th century London as a statement of impossibility. The expression derives from the presumption that all swans must be white because all historical records of swans reported that they had white feathers. In that context, a black swan was impossible or at least nonexistent. However, in 1697, Dutch explorers became the first Europeans to see black swans in Australia. The term subsequently metamorphosed to connote the idea that a perceived impossibility might later be disproven. It is now largely associated with rare events effecting financial markets, largely due to Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

By analyzing long-term data from three ecosystems, we were able to show that fluctuations that happen in different biological species are statistically the same across different ecosystems,” says lead author Samuel Bray, a research assistant in the lab of senior author Bo Wang, assistant professor of bioengineering at Stanford University.

>"By looking systems in which things suddenly go very wrong, researchers created a tool that could help predict the next gigantic global disaster."

>"By looking systems in which things suddenly go very wrong, researchers created a tool that could help predict the next gigantic global disaster."

“EXISTING METHODS RELY ON WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TO PREDICT WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE, AND THAT’S WHY THEY TEND TO MISS BLACK SWAN EVENTS.”

Pretty