>”My current “optimistic case” is that the current bear market will ultimately be classified merely in the “moderate” category. In accordance with this particular analysis, this would imply a trough for the current bear market cycle in the range (S&P 500 index) of 2313 to 1955. For reasons I will proceed to explain later in this article, I believe that it's relatively unlikely that the S&P 500 will bottom out in this range during the current bear market cycle. >My current “base case” scenario (my working hypothesis) is that the current bear market will ultimately fall into the “severe” category. In this particular analysis, this would imply a trough for the current bear market cycle in the range (S&P 500 index) of 1876 to 1463.”