A focused study group for the discussion of economics and economic policy.
32023 Members
We'll be adding more communities soon!
© 2020 Relevant Protocols Inc.
A focused study group for the discussion of economics and economic policy.
32023 Members
We'll be adding more communities soon!
© 2020 Relevant Protocols Inc.
Relevant
Hot
New
Spam
Relevant
Hot
New
Spam
0
29.5K
0
29.5K
Here is the difference between an artificially inflated stock market and the mighty economy
Here is the difference between an artificially inflated stock market and the mighty economy
I think one of the most nerdy and brutal comments I have seen about this divergence was roughly: "It is going to be really difficult to do econometrics research for the next decade" because any even remotely sensible set of associations in economics (unemployment/stock market, debt/growth, etc.) will be offset by this period. Typically small upticks in unemployment would portend a downward move in the stock market, yet we had the biggest, sharpest, drop in employment in living memory while the market went up. We had oil trade negative on contracts, but unemployment rise. Coins were disappearing from circulation during a period of dramatically reduced consumer spending. Etc, etc, etc. Weirdsville.
I think one of the most nerdy and brutal comments I have seen about this divergence was roughly: "It is going to be really difficult to do econometrics research for the next decade" because any even remotely sensible set of associations in economics (unemployment/stock market, debt/growth, etc.) will be offset by this period. Typically small upticks in unemployment would portend a downward move in the stock market, yet we had the biggest, sharpest, drop in employment in living memory while the market went up. We had oil trade negative on contracts, but unemployment rise. Coins were disappearing from circulation during a period of dramatically reduced consumer spending. Etc, etc, etc. Weirdsville.
Totally agree Dr J. We are in uncharted territory here. US stocks near all time high whilst the actual economy is gutted. I do wonder whether they are trying to stave off a pension crisis by keeping the equity markets high, especially with bond yields being so low. Could also be that US equity markets are seen as a safe haven compared to other parts of the world.
Totally agree Dr J. We are in uncharted territory here. US stocks near all time high whilst the actual economy is gutted. I do wonder whether they are trying to stave off a pension crisis by keeping the equity markets high, especially with bond yields being so low. Could also be that US equity markets are seen as a safe haven compared to other parts of the world.
The stock market performance is largely down to retail investors sitting at home bored during lockdown and investing (or more accurately betting) their savings... it's a bubble
The stock market performance is largely down to retail investors sitting at home bored during lockdown and investing (or more accurately betting) their savings... it's a bubble
GDP down 32.9% 😯 229% increase over previous record of 10% drop in single quarter.
GDP down 32.9% 😯 229% increase over previous record of 10% drop in single quarter.
The economy’s collapse in the April-June quarter, stunning in its speed and depth, came as a resurgence of the viral outbreak has pushed businesses to close for a second time in many areas.
The economy’s collapse in the April-June quarter, stunning in its speed and depth, came as a resurgence of the viral outbreak has pushed businesses to close for a second time in many areas.
Some low-ranking comments may have been hidden.
Some low-ranking comments may have been hidden.